Here’s how the major indexes finished up:

          2017 was certainly an interesting year.  The markets were resilient amid a number of potentially disruptive events, whether it was rising tensions globally or Mother Nature’s Wrath we felt here locally. Nearly all of the global stock indexes were higher, with many hitting all time highs.  Most of America was concerned with the UNCERTAINTY of the new Trump Presidency, which is why most analysts originally projected conservative numbers in 2017 and were far from their predictions in the end.  NOTE: I always take those analyst “predictions” with a grain of salt anyways.  Granted, forecasting the market is difficult (near impossible) but I would love to see their paycheck diminish depending on how far “off” their predictions were.  I mean, what is at stake when they make these predictions?  It seems like it is just for fun, and throwing guesses out there to see what sticks. Did the analyst who predicted a market pullback get paid any less for being off target?  Probably not. But I digress.  At the end of the day, the 2017 markets saw through the whirlwind of negative media headlines from around the world and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted 70 new highs!  Also of note was the price of gold increasing over 10% (especially with all the talk about Bitcoin!) and the price of brent crude oil increased over 5%.  For those following the US dollar, it slumped nearly 10% for the year.

        One celebrated milestone that some overlooked was the 20 year anniversary of the ROTH IRA!  OK, maybe I was one of the few celebrating, but I do recall scraping together two-grand and making my first Roth IRA contribution in 2007.  I am glad I got started back then and have tried to add to it annually when possible. Our present day environment still makes Roth IRAs relatively attractive versus other investment vehicles, and recent tax law changes didn’t eliminate the back-door Roth IRA strategies.  So talk to me about them – if we haven’t already!

        With that said, I will be carefully watching certain themes in 2018.  Always of interest is where interest rates go (we expect more rate hikes) and if/when the unemployment rate changes course (it’s 4.1% now – down from 10.0% eight years ago). Seeing how the new tax legislation plays out could also require adjustments to our investment strategy.  It will certainly be worth observing how the corporate rate tax cuts and promised infrastructure spending evolve – most think it will be a benefit to our economy, particularly in the short-term.  Lower corporate tax rates could incentivize companies to deploy more capital, which should be a positive for the economy.  Many analysts say that technology, energy, and infrastructure could see some momentum in the year ahead…so I will be watching that as well.

        A final word as we look ahead: repeating last year’s robust returns may be a challenge.  I do believe there is still some room to run in this market, but would not expect 2018 to be as fruitful as 2017.   I am cautiously optimistic and do think it could be another solid year ahead, but understand that this bull market is a little long in the tooth.  We need to be prepared for that inevitable pullback, but I often tell my clients that a well-constructed portfolio should be able to weather any storm.   In today’s world I see constant headwinds that may never dissipate, however those who are disciplined, rational, and have faith in the free markets – could very well be rewarded once again.

Brandon

Disclaimer: This information contains forward-looking statements about various economic trends and strategies. You are cautioned that such forward-looking statements are subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and actual results could be materially different. There are no guarantees associated with any forecast and the opinions stated here are subject to change at any time and are the opinion of the advisor. Data comes from the following sources: Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federal Reserve Board, and Haver Analytics. Data is taken from sources generally believed to be reliable but no guarantee is given to its accuracy.